PhD: Global modelling of coastal migration under climate change and sea level rise

Are you  interested in how coastal flooding and long-term sea level rise will affect coastal migration and adaptation? Please apply at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

Location: AMSTERDAM
FTE: 0.8 - 1

Future sea level rise, extreme flood events, and urbanization pressure will increase coastal flood risk. In absence of costly flood protection measures in numerous regions, millions of coastal residents will be forced to migrate to safer locations. This research addresses the significant challenges these trends pose to flood risk adaptation and migration policy: which coastal areas should be protected, in which regions will mass migration become inevitable, and which policy solutions may help managing migration flows?

The ERC-advanced project COASTMOVE will tackle this challenge by focusing on how human adaptive and migration behaviour of global coastal residents and other agents, such as governments, will respond to sea-level rise  and related impacts, such as flooding, salinization and erosion. For this, the project will develop a global agent-based model (ABM) which simulates under which conditions coastal inhabitants (i.e. living in areas that can flood) will move to safer locations. This detailed ABM is coupled to a Gravity model, which simulates the larger migration flows within countries and between countries.

While the focus of this project is on the effect from environmental factors related to sea level rise (i.e. coastal flooding, erosion, salt intrusion), other socio-economic and demographic drivers also play a role. Key for the research is to integrate data on all these drivers, and to quantify how these drivers affect migration behaviour between 2020 and 2100.

You will develop a global ABM on the basis of an existing ABM-Gravity model for France. You will closely collaborate with 3 other PhDs: PhD1 who has set up the model for France, PhD2 working on surveys in 7 countries (e.g. Bangladesh, Marshall Islands, Alaska) and PhD3 who works on econometric analysis and global data.

The surveys provide insights in the migration decisions of people in the 7 case studies, while the global data while be used to scale up the migration decisions to all other regions. You thus need to integrate data from PhDs 2 and 3 into the model developed by PhD1, and extrapolate the existing model for France to the global scale using global data. This is why we need (1) a candidate who has excellent programming- (Python) and statistical / data processing skills and (2) can work in a multi-disciplinary environment. Since the global scale ABM is computationally challenging, computational solutions (e.g., parallel processing, GPU computing) on a computational cluster will be required. The final PhD Thesis will be composed of four peer reviewed scientific papers describing the global model and the upscaling methods.

Your duties

• set up an Agent Based Model for coastal migration using different theories of migration decisions
• integrate data from surveys and global databases on the socio-economic and environmental drivers of migration.
• apply future scenarios (sea level rise, population growth, coastal flooding etc) to simulate effects on migration
• extensive calibration of ABM/gravity models and validation with stakeholders (e.g. World Bank)

• a Master’s degree in Hydrology, Computational Science, Civil/Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Applied Mathematics, Environmental Sciences, Physics, Econometrics, or a related field
• strong quantitative skills in data-assessment, programming (preferably in Python, or willing to learn Python) and machine Learning / statistical methods
• strong collaboration and communication skills to work in a larger team of researchers from other disciplines involved in international research projects

A challenging position in a socially involved organisation. The salary will be in accordance with university regulations for academic personnel and amounts €2.443 (PhD) per month during the first year and increases to €3,111 (PhD) per month during the fourth year, based on a full-time employment. The job profile: is based on the university job ranking system and is vacant for at least 0.8 FTE.

The appointment will initially be for one year. After a satisfactory evaluation of the initial appointment, the contract will be extended for a duration of three years.

Additionally, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam offers excellent fringe benefits and various schemes and regulations to promote a good work/life balance, such as:

• a maximum of 41 days of annual leave based on full-time employment, 8% holiday allowance and 8.3% end-of-year bonus, solid pension scheme (ABP), contribution to commuting expenses, optional model for designing a personalised benefits package

The ambition of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam is clear: to contribute to a better world through outstanding education and ground-breaking research. We strive to be a university where personal development and commitment to society play a leading role. A university where people from different disciplines and backgrounds collaborate to achieve innovations and to generate new knowledge. Our teaching and research encompass the entire spectrum of academic endeavor – from the humanities, the social sciences and the natural sciences through to the life sciences and the medical sciences.

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam is home to more than 30,000 students. We employ over 5,500 individuals. The VU campus is easily accessible and located in the heart of Amsterdam’s Zuidas district, a truly inspiring environment for teaching and research.

Diversity
We are an inclusive university community. Diversity is one of our most important values. We believe that engaging in international activities and welcoming students and staff from a wide variety of backgrounds enhances the quality of our education and research. We are always looking for people who can enrich our world with their own unique perspectives and experiences.

The Faculty of Science
The Faculty of Science inspires researchers and students to find sustainable solutions for complex societal issues. From forest fires to big data, from obesity to medicines and from molecules to the moon: our teaching and research programmes cover the full spectrum of the natural sciences. We share knowledge and experience with leading research institutes and industries, both here in the Netherlands and abroad.

Working at the Faculty of Science means working with students, PhD candidates and researchers, all with a clear focus on their field and a broad view of the world. We employ more than 1,250 staff members, and we are home to around 6,000 students.

About the institute
Established in 1971, IVM is a leading environmental research institute that is internationally recognised for its high quality research output in a range of environmental disciplines, as well as for its interdisciplinary work. The mission of the institute is to contribute to sustainable development and care for the environment through scientific research and teaching. IVM aims to do excellent problem-oriented research that is useful to a wide range of stakeholders in the Netherlands and internationally. A unique strength of our research is to understand sustainability problems in their social and economic context. IVM’s research community works within four departments: Environmental Economics; Environmental Policy Analysis; Environmental Geography; and Water and Climate Risk. Since 2001 IVM is part of the Faculty of Science at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (www.ivm.vu.nl ).
The department of Water and Climate Risk studies hydrological- and climate processes, and how these processes lead to risks and opportunities for society, the economy, and the environment. A defining characteristic of the department is a multi-disciplinary approach that combines expertise from natural sciences with knowledge from the fields of economics, e-Science and geography. This approach has led to a unique research portfolio of water and climate risk projects, and the department is a global leading institute in flood and drought risk assessment, and risk management research.

Are you interested in this position? Please apply via the application button and upload your motivation letter, curriculum vitae, and the names and contact details of two references (we will only contact these for candidates selected for an interview) by

.

Applications received by e-mail will not be processed.

Vacancy questions
If you have any questions regarding this vacancy, you may contact:

Name: Prof. J.C.J.H. Aerts
Position: Professor Water and Climate Risk
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.ivm.vu.nl

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