Present and future risk of compound climate and weather events impacting UK agriculture

This is an exciting PhD opportunity combining remote sensing data, crop yield observations, climate observations and model outputs and machine learning approaches to identify the types of different compounding climate and weather events affecting crops. The project will investigate hotspots of compounding extremes impacts for various crops and will also examine what the spatial distribution of compound extremes might look like in the future. It is a fully funded NERC - CENTA PhD Studentship for 3.5 years. Successful home-fees-eligible candidates will receive an annual stipend, stipend, set at £17,668, plus full university fees and a research training support grant (RTSG) of £8,000. Read moreRead less

Extreme weather and climate events such as hot extremes and heavy precipitation have become frequent and more intense across land regions in recent years (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021) which can have devastating impacts on agricultural production and crop yield. Events such as drought, frost, freezing temperatures and flooding have caused crop failure and significant reduction in various crop yields in many parts of the worlds. For example, in spring 2021 and 2022 freezing temperatures caused severe crop failure to vineyards in France with 80% of the country’s wine and fruit tree regions were affected (Lamichhane, 2021). Other parts of Europe were also been affected such as Italy, the Czech Republic and the UK.

While many studies have examined individual extremes and their effects on agriculture and crop yields, there exists a scope to advance our understanding, especially related to rising multivariate compound extremes. Simultaneous occurrence of two or more natural extremes or in succession may have greater impacts than their univariate occurrence. There are a wide range of compound events that occur on a variety of spatial and temporal scales: typical examples include droughts coupled with heat waves, floods after heatwaves, cold and wet extremes in winter etc. However, we are yet to fully understand all types of compound extremes, the dynamical and physical processes associated with their occurrence, the framework and the methods required for their analysis, and their likelihood within the present and future climate.

Methodology
The aim of this project is to integrate remote sensing data, climate observations and model outputs, crop yield data and machine learning techniques to investigating present and future risk of compound climate and weather events impacting UK agriculture. The student will 1) define the spatial distribution of compound extremes affecting various crops. Crop types will be decided based on data availability and the remote sensing crop yield estimates. Different compounding events would be considered in time and space (e.g., simultaneous, concurrent, sequential) 2) define the spatial and temporal changes in compound extremes during growing seasons for various crops 3) analyse the likelihood and spatial extent of compound events in different regions 4) evaluate future changes in crops using UKCP18 and/or several CMIP6 models.

Partners and collaboration
The supervisory team will include Dr Abdou Khouakhi, Cranfield University with strong academic background in Remote Sensing, data science and impacts of extreme climate and weather events and Dr Louise Slater, Associate Professor at Oxford University who leads the Hydro-Climate Extremes research group, which develops computational approaches to detect, attribute, and predict how changes in climate and land cover may affect water-related extremes and society.

Possible timeline:
Year 1: Literature review on compound climate and weather events, refine and agree research aims and objectives, write review article.
Year 2: Define various compound events and how/whether they are associated to crop yields (I.e., preconditioned, multivariate, temporally and spatially compound) 2) Define the spatial distribution of compound extremes affecting various crops 3) Define the spatial and temporal changes in compound extremes during growing seasons for various crops
Year 3: Calculate the likelihood and spatial extent of compound events in different regions, evaluate future changes under various GHG emissions scenarios.

• Application deadline11 Jan 2023
• Award type(s)PhD
• Start date02 Oct 2023
• Duration of award3.5 years
• EligibilityUK, EU, Rest of World
• Reference numberSWEE0200

 1st Supervisor: Dr Abdou Khouakhi   2nd Supervisor: Dr Louise Slater

Applicants should have at least a 2:1 at UK BSc level or at least a pass at UK MSc level or equivalent in a related discipline.

Sponsored by NERC through CENTA DTP, Cranfield University. Successful home-fees-eligible candidates will receive an annual stipend, set at £17,668, paid directly to the student in monthly increments, plus full university fees and a research training support grant (RTSG) of £8,000.

The project is open to all applicants who meet the academic requirements (at least a 2:1 at UK BSc level or at least a pass at UK MSc level or equivalent). Please note the grant covers the fees for a home award. Unless you are eligible for such a home award, you will need to consider how you will be able to meet any shortfall in funding for tuition fees, e.g. self-funded. Please contact the supervisors listed on the project for more information.

Research students at Cranfield benefit from being part of a dynamic, focused and professional study environment and all become valued members of the Cranfield Doctoral Network.  This network brings together both research students and staff, providing a platform for our researchers to share ideas and collaborate in a multi-disciplinary environment. It aims to encourage an effective and vibrant research culture, founded upon the diversity of activities and knowledge. A tailored programme of seminars and events, alongside our Doctoral Researchers Core Development programme (transferable skills training), provide those studying a research degree with a wealth of social and networking opportunities.

If you are eligible to apply for the PhD, please complete the online application form  stating the reference No. SWEE0200

For further information please contact:
Dr Abdou Khouakhi
E: a.khouakhi @cranfield.ac.uk

Admissions
T: +44 (0)1234 758082
E: [email protected]

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