Postdoc predicting and forecasting fertility

University of Groningen, Netherlands

Updated: 2 months ago
Deadline: 22 Jul 2026

Fertility outcomes – or whether and when people have children – is a major topic of study across the human sciences because of its importance for individuals and societies. Sociological and demographic research has developed numerous theories of fertility and produced a sophisticated body of work on the many characteristics associated with fertility. Despite this, we are poorly able to predict individual-level fertility and forecast future levels of fertility.

The postdoctoral researcher will contribute to research of fertility by investigating the causes of poor prediction and forecasting in addition to ways of improving them. The successful candidate will be embedded in the Department of Sociology and the ICS, the national-level interuniversity research and training center ICS (Interuniversity Center of Social Science Theory and Methodology).

What are you going to do?

You will be involved in two different projects both related to fertility. In the first, you will contribute to the project “Understanding fertility outcomes by quantifying the (un)predictable”. In particular, you will investigate the results and implications of the PreFer data challenge – a large data challenge that was held with hundreds of researchers who attempted to predict who would have a child in three years. The second project is “Forecasting Fertility with Foundational Models”.

More specific tasks include:

  • Conducting independent high-quality research on the limits of predicting fertility in relation to the PreFer data challenge.
  • Apply foundation models to forecasts of fertility capitalising on Dutch register data.
  • Sharing knowledge through scientific publications (peer-reviewed journals) and non-scientific publications (policy briefs, outreach materials).
  • Presenting results at conferences, workshops, and stakeholder events.
  • Engage in educational activities that contribute to your professional growth in the project and the Department of Sociology.
  • Participate in biweekly Families, Lifecourse and AGeing research cluster meetings.

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