Post-doc (M/F) on the evolution of avalanche activity in the Alps with climate change

17 Jan 2024
Job Information

Organisation/Company

CNRS

Department

Centre national de recherches météorologiques

Research Field

Environmental science
Biological sciences
Geosciences

Researcher Profile

First Stage Researcher (R1)

Country

France

Application Deadline

6 Feb 2024 - 23:59 (UTC)

Type of Contract

Temporary

Job Status

Full-time

Hours Per Week

35

Offer Starting Date

1 May 2024

Is the job funded through the EU Research Framework Programme?

Not funded by an EU programme

Is the Job related to staff position within a Research Infrastructure?

No

Offer Description

The IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere (IPCC, 2019) states that "hazards [including avalanches] in the mountains are expected to occur in new locations and seasons in the future." Assessing and understanding these changes and producing future projections that account for the various sources of uncertainty is therefore crucial. Initial studies have detected certain trends in avalanche activity over the past period 1950-2010 (e.g., Eckert et al., 2013). Estimates for the future are based exclusively on numerical simulations and face additional difficulties, such as differences in spatio-temporal scales between global climate modeling and local avalanche activity. Thus, to date, a single study worldwide postulates a 20-30% global decrease in natural avalanche activity for the end of the 21st century compared with the 1960-1990 period for the Alps, but based on a single crude and poorly performing avalanche activity index (MEPRA, Giraud, 1992), and on a scenario (SRES A1B) - global modeling (CMIP3) pairing that is now outdated (Castebrunet et al., 2014).

This position aims to qualify the evolution of natural avalanche activity in the Alps with climate change. One of the ambitious objectives is to be able to estimate changes in the return period (and associated uncertainty) of events observed in the past, distinguishing between dry snow and wet snow avalanches. This involves implementing a methodology based on modeling indicators of the intensity and nature of avalanche activity, making it possible to exploit climate projections as a function of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The modeling of avalanche activity indicators based on snow-meteorological conditions benefits from recent work by CEN and Inrae, exploiting knowledge of the processes involved in avalanche triggering and data on observed past avalanche activity. In addition, the project is based on the mature methodology developed at CNRM for adapting global climate projections to local mountain conditions. The target spatial domain is the Alps. The temporal domain corresponds to the period 1958-2100.

- Castebrunet, H., Eckert, N., Giraud, G., Durand, Y., Morin, S., 2014. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods. The Cryosphere 8, 1673–1697. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014
- Eckert, N., Keylock, C. J., Castebrunet, H., Lavigne. A., Naaim, M. (2013). Temporal trends in avalanche activity in the French Alps and subregions. Journal of Glaciology. Vol. 59, issue 213, pp. 93-114
- Giraud, G., 1992. MEPRA an expert system for avalanche risk forecasting, in: Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW). Breckenridge, Colorado, USA, pp. 97–104.
- IPCC (2019). IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/

To assess the evolution of natural avalanche activity in the Alps in the face of climate change, we propose to carry out a numerical modeling study, broken down into the following tasks:
1) Implementation of diagnostics characterizing the avalanche hazard based on numerical simulations of the snowpack (physical or statistical algorithms).
2) Generate past snow-meteorological conditions (1958-present) for the Alps on a massif scale, based on SAFRAN reanalysis.
3) Apply and adjust physically and statistically based impact models (number and nature of avalanches) based on simulated past snow-meteorological data and various sources of avalanche activity observation (including permanent avalanche surveys).
4) Generate nivo-meteorological conditions for the future (1958 - 2100) based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and global and regional model results.
5) Apply impact models to projections of snow-weather conditions.
6) Determine trends in the number and nature of avalanches with climate change, using robust statistical methods. Particular attention will be paid to quantifying uncertainty and to the evolution of extreme snowfall, one of the most important factors in avalanche flooding.
7) Summarize the scientific results as an article and in a report for avalanche risk managers.

This contract is offered within the framework of the agreement between the Direction Générale de la Prévention des Risques (DGPR) and CNRM (Météo-France - CNRS).

CNRM is mainly located in Toulouse, but this contract will take place in the CNRM/CEN group offices based in St Martin d'Hères (Grenoble, and NOT in Toulouse).

Pascal Hagenmuller and Marie Dumont will supervise the work. Collaboration with L. Viallon (CNRM/CEN) and N. Eckert (Inrae / IGE) is also planned.

Requirements

Research Field

Environmental science

Education Level

PhD or equivalent

Research Field

Biological sciences

Education Level

PhD or equivalent

Research Field

Geosciences

Education Level

PhD or equivalent

Languages

FRENCH

Level

Basic

Research Field

Environmental science

Years of Research Experience

None

Research Field

Biological sciences

Years of Research Experience

None

Research Field

Geosciences

Years of Research Experience

None

Additional Information
Eligibility criteria

- experience in numerical climate simulation, particularly in mountain areas
- knowledge of statistical tools, particularly for rare events
- ability to implement a model in a computer language
- an interest in the study of the cryosphere and climate
- ability to synthesize scientific results

Applicants without a doctorate (M2 level) whose skills correspond well to those expected will also be considered.

Website for additional job details

https://emploi.cnrs.fr/Offres/CDD/UMR3589-PASHAG-005/Default.aspx

Work Location(s)

Number of offers available

1

Company/Institute

Centre national de recherches météorologiques

Country

France

City

TOULOUSE

Geofield

Where to apply

Website

https://emploi.cnrs.fr/Candidat/Offre/UMR3589-PASHAG-005/Candidater.aspx

Contact

City

TOULOUSE

Website

http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/

STATUS: EXPIRED